[A-OS10] Continental Oceanic Mutual Interaction - Planetary Scale Material Circulationn

[AOS10-01] Wintertime impacts of the 2019 Super Indian Ocean Dipole on East Asia

★Invited Papers

*Takeshi Doi¹, Swadhin Behera¹, Toshio Yamagata^1,2 (1.JAMSTEC/VAiG/APL, 2.NUITS/ICAR)

Keywords:Seasaonal prediction, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode, Large ensemble numarical prediction

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an intrinsic ocean-atmosphere coupled climate phenomenon in the tropical Indian Ocean with warm (cold) sea surface temperature anomalies with enhanced (reduced) rainfall in the western (eastern) tropical Indian Ocean during a positive phase. A strong and long-lasting positive IOD event occurred in 2019, which caused climate-related disasters in countries not only around the Indian Ocean but also East Asia, including Japan. For example, many parts of Australia were seriously affected by a series of massive bushfires owing to the drier than normal conditions, while crop yield in East Africa was threatened by a plague of locusts owing to the wetter condition there. Japan experienced extremely warm conditions during the 2019-2020 winter. In this study, the wintertime impacts on East Asia is the focus. These were successfully predicted in October of 2019 by the 108-member ensemble numerical seasonal prediction system based on a dynamical climate model "SINTEX-F". Successful prediction of the teleconnection of such a super event may contribute to reducing the risks of socioeconomic losses under suitable measures for adaptation and mitigation.