[A-OS13] Marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles: theory, observation and modeling

[AOS13-02] Understanding Marine Ecosystems – A View to the Future

★Invited Papers

*Eileen E Hofmann¹ (1.Old Dominion University)

Keywords:Management Strategy Evaluation , IMBeR

Integrated ecosystem analyses provide an approach for understanding and projecting responses of marine ecosystems to changing climate conditions and direct human impacts such as fisheries. Complex interactions within food webs modify responses of individual species and influence the responses of entire ecosystems to change. Reliable projections of the impacts of past and future changes on marine ecosystems require fundamental understanding of the factors that determine the structure and function of the food webs at multiple scales, incorporation of this understanding into coupled modeling frameworks, and approaches for translating information so that it can be used for development of policies and regulations. Ecosystem adjustments resulting from exploitation of living resources and climate change are ongoing and significant changes are becoming apparent at all trophic levels. Management Strategy Evaluations (MSE), which are systems of linked models, allow the cascade of effects initiated by changes in climate, ocean or food webs to be identified using comprehensive mechanistic descriptions of ecosystem responses, which are then evaluated in terms of potential social and economic effects. The information from a MSE then provides inputs for evaluating and developing management and regulatory policies for a resource. This presentation overviews MSEs developed for marine ecosystems and implications for management and policy. The lessons learned from MSE implementation point to research needs that in turn will inform development of initiatives for the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.