[A-OS18] Kuroshio Large Meander

[AOS18-P06] The Kuroshio volume transport in near future estimated by Reduced Gravity model

*Takashi SETOU¹, Akira KUSAKA, Daisuke Ambe, Daiki Ito¹, Takashiko Kameda (1.Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency)

Keywords:the Kuroshio large meander

In August 2017, for the first time in 12 years, the Kuroshio large meander event has occurred and is still continuing after three years and five months, making it the second-longest-lasting meander event in history among those that have occurred since 1970. Once the Kuroshio Meanders occur, the fishing environment in the surrounding seas will change and the fishing industry will be greatly affected. It is known that the duration of the Kuroshio large meander has an inverse linear relationship with the Kuroshio volumeflow transport, i.e., the lower the transport, the longer the duration (Usui et al. 2013). We has calculated the 137E eastward Kuroshio flow using a 1.5-layer Reduced Gravity model driven by wind stress, and then created a regression model to fit the 2017 Kuroshio Large Meander to the transport until 2020. As a result, it is estimated to continue for about 48 months, that is, until July 2021 (±7 months). However, as the transport will continue to be low in the future, there is a possibility that the large meander will become more prolonged.