[H-CG26] Adaptation to climate change and its social implementation

[HCG26-02] Developments of future climate scenario selection method for impact and adaptation studies

*Hideo Shiogama¹, Noriko N. Ishizaki¹, Naota Hanasaki¹, Kiyoshi Takahashi¹, Seita Emori¹, Rui Ito^2,3, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa³, Izuru Takayabu³, Yasuaki Hijioka¹, Yukari N. Takayabu⁴, Ryosuke Shibuya⁴ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, 3.Meteorological Research Institute, 4.Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Climate change, Adaptation, Climate scenarios

Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.