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[MIS01-10] Changing climate of the Western Siberia and socio-economic risks
Keywords:climate risks, socio-economic risks, changing climate
Western Siberia belongs to the regions with the highest rate of climate warming. Despite the positive factor for the inhabitants of the region, such changes can cause significant socio-economic consequences. The sectors of the economy particularly dependent on meteorological conditions include agriculture complex, construction design, the electric power complex, and the transport sector. The aim of the paper is a comprehensive analysis of specialized climatic indicators of the most populated part of Western Siberia, necessary for the development of the economy sectors in the presence of global climate change. Indicators based on the values of air temperature, precipitation and include the frequency of thunderstorms, hail, and convective instability. In addition, the peculiarities of snow cover, blizzard and glaze-rime phenomena were analyzed for the cold period of the year, the duration of which is considerable in the investigated territory. Data of daily weather station observations of air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric phenomena from the RIHMI-WDC information database from 1961 to 2020 were analyzed for the research.
First of all, global warming is reflected in the values of climatic conditions used in applied calculations. The dates of the steady transition of the mean daily air temperature through 0 °C moved to an earlier date by 4-6 days, through 5 °C by 6-9 days. There is an increase in the extreme temperature of the cold half-year period in the south of Western Siberia. The “low temperatures” events observed more often. Withal, the “high temperatures” events conduct itself similarly during the warm half-year period, against the background of the most conspicuous warming and relatively moderate warming cycle. Studying of the precipitation regime has showed that in most of the territory, the number of days is increasing, both with continuous rainfall and without rainfall. The maximum continuous dry periods are generally greater than the duration of wet periods and increases at a rate of up to 0.8 days per decade. The duration of snow cover is on average 180 days. A decrease in the occurrence duration over the last 30 years is observed, which is due to a change in snow occurrence time and destruction of the snow cover. Over the past three decades, in both the number of days with a blizzard and the average duration of blizzards declined by 2-3 times. To study the frequency of glaze-rime phenomena, the numbers of days with an event and the sum of cases per year have been calculated. The intra-annual, diurnal courses and continuous duration of glaze-rime phenomena were considered. The frequent phenomenon – rime – is 84% of all cases of studied phenomena. The prevalent continuous duration of rime ranges from 7 to 12 hours, glaze and wet snow – within 6 hours. As a result of the study of meteorological conditions for the formation of ice covering on road surface have been determined that the number of anti-icing treatment with deicing materials used in practice is insufficient to ensure the required level of road maintenance and traffic safety on the road network of the northern regions. The number of cycles of anti-icing treatment applied on roads should be expanded by almost 1.5 times. Convective instability of the atmosphere over Western Siberia, evaluated by the temperature-humidity characteristics of the atmosphere in the layer to 500 hPa, has increased in the recent decade. The boundary of the zones of active convection has been gradually moving to the north. The duration of the thunderstorm season and number of days with a hail and thunderstorm have increased. Numbers of days with durable hail as well as with large hail have doubled. The range of values of climatic characteristics taken into account in the construction design, the development and operation of the highways network, housing and utilities sector, the agricultural complex of the region has changed against the global background of climate change.
First of all, global warming is reflected in the values of climatic conditions used in applied calculations. The dates of the steady transition of the mean daily air temperature through 0 °C moved to an earlier date by 4-6 days, through 5 °C by 6-9 days. There is an increase in the extreme temperature of the cold half-year period in the south of Western Siberia. The “low temperatures” events observed more often. Withal, the “high temperatures” events conduct itself similarly during the warm half-year period, against the background of the most conspicuous warming and relatively moderate warming cycle. Studying of the precipitation regime has showed that in most of the territory, the number of days is increasing, both with continuous rainfall and without rainfall. The maximum continuous dry periods are generally greater than the duration of wet periods and increases at a rate of up to 0.8 days per decade. The duration of snow cover is on average 180 days. A decrease in the occurrence duration over the last 30 years is observed, which is due to a change in snow occurrence time and destruction of the snow cover. Over the past three decades, in both the number of days with a blizzard and the average duration of blizzards declined by 2-3 times. To study the frequency of glaze-rime phenomena, the numbers of days with an event and the sum of cases per year have been calculated. The intra-annual, diurnal courses and continuous duration of glaze-rime phenomena were considered. The frequent phenomenon – rime – is 84% of all cases of studied phenomena. The prevalent continuous duration of rime ranges from 7 to 12 hours, glaze and wet snow – within 6 hours. As a result of the study of meteorological conditions for the formation of ice covering on road surface have been determined that the number of anti-icing treatment with deicing materials used in practice is insufficient to ensure the required level of road maintenance and traffic safety on the road network of the northern regions. The number of cycles of anti-icing treatment applied on roads should be expanded by almost 1.5 times. Convective instability of the atmosphere over Western Siberia, evaluated by the temperature-humidity characteristics of the atmosphere in the layer to 500 hPa, has increased in the recent decade. The boundary of the zones of active convection has been gradually moving to the north. The duration of the thunderstorm season and number of days with a hail and thunderstorm have increased. Numbers of days with durable hail as well as with large hail have doubled. The range of values of climatic characteristics taken into account in the construction design, the development and operation of the highways network, housing and utilities sector, the agricultural complex of the region has changed against the global background of climate change.