5:15 PM - 6:30 PM
[MIS13-P04] Modification of probabilistic estimation method for eruption plume height using weather radars
Keywords:weather radar, eruption plume height, probabilistic estimation method, refractivity, earth ellipsoid
Sato et al. (2018) developed a probabilistic estimation method for eruption plume height and applied it to the 2016 Mt. Aso eruption case.In this presentation, we will show the result of applying the improved probabilistic estimation method (MPE method) to the 2018 Kusatsu-Shirane (Motoshirane) eruption case.
The main improvements of the method are that the refractive index of the atmosphere was calculated from the GPV of the initial value of the Mesoscale Model (MSM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and that the effect of the earth ellipsoid was included. In addition, the correction of geoid altitude is also included.
As a result of applying the MPE method to the 2018 eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane (Mt. Motoshirane), the eruption plume height is estimated to be 5,580 m ± 506 m (1σ).
Based on this result, the author also tried to estimate the amount of ejecta by applying four methods for estimating the mass eruption rate from the eruption altitude.
The author also discusses the adequacy of applying these techniques to phreatic eruptions.
The main improvements of the method are that the refractive index of the atmosphere was calculated from the GPV of the initial value of the Mesoscale Model (MSM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and that the effect of the earth ellipsoid was included. In addition, the correction of geoid altitude is also included.
As a result of applying the MPE method to the 2018 eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane (Mt. Motoshirane), the eruption plume height is estimated to be 5,580 m ± 506 m (1σ).
Based on this result, the author also tried to estimate the amount of ejecta by applying four methods for estimating the mass eruption rate from the eruption altitude.
The author also discusses the adequacy of applying these techniques to phreatic eruptions.