11:50 AM - 12:10 PM
[MIS23-11] Future projections in snow cover over high mountainous areas in central Japan simulated by non-hydrostatic regional climate model
★Invited Papers
Keywords:Chubu Mountains, Snowfall and snow cover, global warming, regional climate change, high-resolution regional climate model
We investigate the future changes in snow cover and snowfall in Japan using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions of NHRCM are derived from future climate projections conducted by the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM60) and the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on heavy and light snow-cover years over the mountainous areas in central Japan under present and future climates.
Total snowfall will decrease due to global warming in most parts of Japan, while the mid-winter snowfall will increase in Hokkaido, the northern part of Japan. In the mountainous areas in central Japan, monthly maximum daily snowfall will increase due to global warming. In the years with heavy snow cover under the 4 K warming climate, the mid-winter snowfall is enhanced over 2,000 m above sea level (mASL) in the Japan’s Northern Alps. On the other hand, at low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases. In contract, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover even over 2,000 mASL in the Japan’s Northern Alps. Our results indicate that global warming can increase and decrease the mid-winter snowfall in extremely heavy and light snow-cover years, respectively, at high elevations of Japan’s Northern Alps.
Total snowfall will decrease due to global warming in most parts of Japan, while the mid-winter snowfall will increase in Hokkaido, the northern part of Japan. In the mountainous areas in central Japan, monthly maximum daily snowfall will increase due to global warming. In the years with heavy snow cover under the 4 K warming climate, the mid-winter snowfall is enhanced over 2,000 m above sea level (mASL) in the Japan’s Northern Alps. On the other hand, at low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases. In contract, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover even over 2,000 mASL in the Japan’s Northern Alps. Our results indicate that global warming can increase and decrease the mid-winter snowfall in extremely heavy and light snow-cover years, respectively, at high elevations of Japan’s Northern Alps.