09:01 〜 09:23
[PEM10-02] Sun-to-Earth MHD Simulations of Geo-Effective CMEs
★Invited Papers
キーワード：Sun, Coronal Mass Ejections, Space Weather, Numerical Simulations, Magnetohydrodynamics
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of space-weather disturbances in the terrestrial magnetosphere. Predicting the impact of CMEs before they arrive at Earth is one of the main challenges of solar and heliospheric physics. A candidate tool for this purpose are numerical simulations. State-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are capable of modeling CMEs all the way from Sun to Earth but computationally still too demanding to be used for real-time modeling. Presently, only a simplified model (WAS-ENLIL) is used for operational space-weather forecast. However, given the continuous increase of computing power, more sophisticated models may become available for this purpose in the near future, and first attempts are currently made to prepare such models for operational use. A specific task at hand is to evaluate their accuracy in reproducing in-situ measurements at Earth. In this presentation, I will discuss the predictive capabilities and limitations of state-of-the-art CME simulations. As an example, I will present a Sun-to-Earth simulation of the well-known 14 July 2000 "Bastille-Day" event, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. I will also briefly discuss a recent application of the simulation for a modeling of the solar particle event (SPE) associated with the eruption.