[S-SS03] New insights in Earthquake predictability: modelling and forecasting

[SSS03-P01] 時空間ETASモデルの球面バージョン

*庄 建倉¹、熊 子瑶¹、尾形 良彦¹ (1.統計数理研究所)

キーワード：ETASモテル、球面、地震クラスタリング、地震予測

In this study, by modifying the spatial response function in the triggering term, we propose and implement a spherical version of the space-time ETAS model. At the small local scale, the new model is equivalent to the original 2D planar ETAS model. We analyze and forecast global seismicity with this new model, and test some interesting hypotheses related to global seismicity, such as antipolar triggering phenomena.