[U-12] From Hazard to Resilience

[U12-01] How to communicate Operational Earthquake Forecasts: insights from a mixed-methods study

★Invited Papers

*Sarah Dryhurst¹, Giulia Luoni¹, Irina Dallo², Alexandra Freeman¹, Michèle Marti² (1.University of Cambridge, 2.ETH Zurich)

Keywords:communication, OEF, earthquakes, risk, mixed methods, hazard

In 1854, the idea of forecasting the weather was considered preposterous – how could anyone know anything about the weather later that day, let alone tomorrow, or next week? Yet thanks to the father of the modern weather forecast, Robert Fitzroy, scientific advances meant that by 1861, storm warnings were being wired to UK ports up and down the country, the UK Met Office was publishing weather forecasts in national newspapers, and many lives were being saved from stormy seas as a result of this new public knowledge.

Today, operational earthquake forecasting finds itself in a similar position; with a proliferation of sensors, models and expertise, geoscientists have increasing amounts of information about potential seismic activity that could be of use in public and emergency planning. But how best to communicate that information?

Here we present the initial results from a mixed methods study that has co-designed and evaluated OEF communications with its target audiences in three European countries. We discuss our findings regarding audience needs and present results from an empirical study evaluating audience understanding, trust and actionability of various formats of OEF communications. Implications for future design of these communications is discussed.