14:18 〜 14:33
[MZZ48-03] Future Change of Global Solar Radiation on the Ground around Japan Area using Large Ensemble Simulation
キーワード：気候変動、再生可能エネルギー
Recently, climate change is attracted attention to renewable energy. There are several studies on the future change of wind power generation in Japan. However, there are few studies on the future photovoltaics (PV) power generation in Japan. The PV power generation depends on global solar radiation on the ground (hereafter, SR). The availability of PV is uncertain in the future owing to the SR is affected climate change. Thus, this study investigated the change of SR in future climate under RCP 8.5 scenario.
In this study, we used simulation dataset of d4PDF (database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change). This dataset is ensemble simulation including the historical and future climate simulations. The ensemble simulations in the future with 6 SST (Sea Surface Temperature) patterns. Therefore, this dataset is available to discuss sensitivity of SST patterns on the climate change.
This study evaluated the changing rate of monthly SR in future, the rates were calculated each SST patterns. Fig. a shows the future changing rates of SR each SST patterns, and the hatches were indicated the area of significance level 95% using t-test. The statistically significant increase areas of SR in June were located across the east and west of Honshu and Kyushu. The statistically significant decrease areas were located Southern Pacific and Mainland China. While Hokkaido and Korea weren’t significant change (Fig. a). This result was consistent with the previous studies which indicate formation change of baiu/meiyu front with climate change.
We discussed the change rates of monthly SR each region (see Fig. c). The Fig. b shows the changing rates of each region. In baiu/meiyu season, the rates were different each SST patterns. For instance, Honshu, Kyushu, and Pacific area clearly difference. The results imply that the atmospheric circulation was considered influenced by SST patterns. On that day, we also describe anything another month than June.
In this study, we used simulation dataset of d4PDF (database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change). This dataset is ensemble simulation including the historical and future climate simulations. The ensemble simulations in the future with 6 SST (Sea Surface Temperature) patterns. Therefore, this dataset is available to discuss sensitivity of SST patterns on the climate change.
This study evaluated the changing rate of monthly SR in future, the rates were calculated each SST patterns. Fig. a shows the future changing rates of SR each SST patterns, and the hatches were indicated the area of significance level 95% using t-test. The statistically significant increase areas of SR in June were located across the east and west of Honshu and Kyushu. The statistically significant decrease areas were located Southern Pacific and Mainland China. While Hokkaido and Korea weren’t significant change (Fig. a). This result was consistent with the previous studies which indicate formation change of baiu/meiyu front with climate change.
We discussed the change rates of monthly SR each region (see Fig. c). The Fig. b shows the changing rates of each region. In baiu/meiyu season, the rates were different each SST patterns. For instance, Honshu, Kyushu, and Pacific area clearly difference. The results imply that the atmospheric circulation was considered influenced by SST patterns. On that day, we also describe anything another month than June.