Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

Presentation information

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS02] From weather predictability to controllability

Mon. May 22, 2023 1:45 PM - 3:00 PM 104 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Takemasa Miyoshi(RIKEN), Tetsuo Nakazawa(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute), Shu-Chih Yang(National Central University), Kohei Takatama(Japan Science and Technology Agency), Chairperson:Takemasa Miyoshi(RIKEN), Tetsuo Nakazawa(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[AAS02-04] Quantifying Weather Controllability and Mitigatable Flood Damage Based on Ensemble Weather Forecast

*Shunji Kotsuki1 (1.Institute for Advanced Academic Research, Chiba University)

Keywords:weather controlability, ensemble weather prediction, data compression, directed graph

For realizing a weather-controlled society, we need to discuss the way to maximize the effect of manipulations to the atmosphere. For that purpose, this project aims at developing methods that quantify weather controllability and mitigatable flood damage based on ensemble weather forecasts. To quantify weather controllability, this project investigates meteorological landscapes that separate disaster and non-disaster regimes which may be controllable with small manipulations. We also estimate economic damages under non-controlled/controlled scenarios, in order to quantify avoidable damage by weather control.
We have started illustrating directed graphs as the first step in understanding the meteorological landscape. Typhoon Prapiroon in 2018 was used for the case study. Singular value decomposition (SVD) is employed for Japan Meteorological Agency’s operational meso-scale ensemble prediction data to extract principle components of atmospheric states, followed by a clustering using density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise known as DBSCAN. The illustrated graph succeeded in detecting separated two clusters that correspond to faster and slower movements of predicted Parapiroon. The developed algorithm is currently applied to other disastrous events as well as further investigations on non-linear data compression methods beyond SVD. This presentation includes the most recent achievements up to the time of the conference.