Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023

Presentation information

[E] Oral

A (Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences ) » A-AS Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment

[A-AS02] From weather predictability to controllability

Mon. May 22, 2023 3:30 PM - 4:45 PM 104 (International Conference Hall, Makuhari Messe)

convener:Takemasa Miyoshi(RIKEN), Tetsuo Nakazawa(Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute), Shu-Chih Yang(National Central University), Kohei Takatama(Japan Science and Technology Agency), Chairperson:Takemasa Miyoshi(RIKEN), Tetsuo Nakazawa(Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

4:00 PM - 4:15 PM

[AAS02-08] Why weather modification research in Japan and the United States had to rapidly decline in 1971?

*Mirai Abe1, Fudeyasu Hironori1, Sasaoka Manami1 (1.Yokohama National University)

Keywords:ELSI, weather control

The national project in Japan, the Moonshot Research and Development Program sets ambitious goals, and Goal 8 is “Realization of a society safe from the threat of extreme winds and rains by controlling and modifying the weather by 2050”. It is expected to develop weather control technology that is technically, ethically, legally, socially, and economically feasible.
Between 1962 and 1983, research in hurricane modification centered on an ambitious experimental program, Project STORMFURY in the United States. In Japan, research on weather modification became active under the influence of Project STORMFURY.
In this study, we investigated the weather modification research in 1960s and 1970s in Japan and the USA by looking through all the references and interviewing people. I collected references at the National Diet Library, the National Archives of Japan, the database system of minutes of the plenary sittings and committee meetings of the Diet, and CiNii Research.
The main purpose of the project STORMFURY was to conduct cloud-seeding experiments within hurricanes. Unfortunately, during the Project, the project team did not take good opportunities and was only able to conduct cloud-seeding experiments three cases, Hurricane Beulah(1963), Hurricane Debbie(1968), and Hurricane Ginger(1971). To increase experimental opportunities, the U.S. government proposed to Japan and other countries over the northwestern Pacific Ocean at the Conference of Typhoon Committee(United Nations Economic Commission For Asia And The Far East; ECAFE and World Meteorological Organization; WMO) in 1965. The possibility of experimenting in the northwestern Pacific was considered, but as a result it did not materialize. In Japan, weather modification research became active, but rapidly declined in 1971.
In this presentation, we will report the reasons why the experiment in the northwestern Pacific did not materialize and why the weather modification research declined in Japan. It is reflected in the number of references on weather modification research in Japan, which has declined sharply since 1971.
The U.S. had discussed the experiment in the northwestern Pacific with Japan and other countries, but the results were not satisfactory and the deadline for reporting to the Navy was not met.
In Japan, declining of weather modification research can be attributed to the 1971 Kawasaki accident, 15 people died in landslide experiments on artificially slopes. After the accident, research of weather modification and demonstration experiments involving human intervention in nature came to be regarded as strongly dangerous.
This research was supported by JST Moonshot R&D Grant Number JPMJMS2282.