[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG32-P02] Diverse inter-model responses of ENSO to NPO in future scenarios

*THANH LE¹ (1.Sejong University)

Keywords:El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, causal connections

There is uncertainty in the future connection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Here we examined the responses of ENSO to NPO in CMIP6 model simulations. We show that NPO future impacts on ENSO are divergent between the models. These impacts also depend on specific scenarios. Stronger interaction between ENSO and NPO in SSP2-4.5 is observed with 10/21 models showing significant causal influence, while there are 6/21 models in SSP5-8.5. These results suggest unstable effects of NPO on ENSO in the future scenarios.