[A-CG32] Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales

[ACG32-P03] The influence of modes of tropical and subtropical climate variability on Mozambique’s precipitation

*Luis Adriano Chongue¹, Kazuaki Nishii¹ (1.Mie University)

This study investigates the linkage between the year-to-year variability of precipitation in Mozambique and major modes of tropical and subtropical climate variability. The Niño 3.4 index shows a significant negative correlation with rainfall in Mozambique's southern and central regions, while precipitation in the northwestern region shows a weak negative correlation. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) has also been shown to play a crucial role in controlling precipitation variability in Mozambique; nevertheless, its influence is limited in Mozambique's southern and central regions. A significant positive correlation is found when Benguela Nino leads the rainfall in Mozambique by six months in the south, central and northeast, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) leads precipitation by three months in the south and central regions. Overall, the northeast precipitation exhibits a poor correlation with those modes of climate variability. Therefore, the modes of climate variability have stronger control over the precipitation variability in the south and central of Mozambique; however, they have weaker control in Northern Mozambique, particularly in its northeast region, suggesting the existence of other climate drivers controlling precipitation variability there.