[H-CG23] Adaptation to climate change and its social implementation

[HCG23-P08] Climatic and Socioeconomic Impacts for Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment in the Tokyo Area

*Takumi Hariu¹, KOJI DAIRAKU² (1.University of Tsukuba, Degree Programs in Engineering Mechanics & Energy, 2.University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems)

Keywords:Flood risk, Risk curve, Frequency-Damage (FD) method

Intensification of the flood risk is projected due to an increase in extreme precipitation caused by regional climate change in the Tokyo area. It is a lowland region with a highly dense population and infrastructure and is thus subjected to a very high risk of natural disasters. For effective climate change adaption to flood risk in the area, we investigated flood risk curves improved to incorporate the effects of climate change on precipitation. The assessment shows a significant difference in the flood risk curve before and after adapting the FD method to climate change. We focused on the damage occurrence rate and average damage rate to investigate the cause. The improved FD method was applied to calculate the annual flood damages with the frequency distribution of precipitation and the estimated uncertainty range.