17:15 〜 18:45
[MZZ39-P05] Analysis of Air Pollution and Health Impact in a Net Zero Scenario
キーワード：Net Zero, Air pollution, Climate change
In the evaluation of energy use strategies, air pollution has been a public issue in the world. Currently, there is limited research exploring how to quantitatively assess the multifaceted benefits of different energy use strategies, such as changes in energy structure or efficient energy utilization, in terms of economics, air pollution, and public health. China and South Korea have separately employed modeling to simulate scenarios of CO2 reduction and assess air quality and health benefits. Our team utilized the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to evaluate the improvement in air quality across various net-zero pathways. The chemical transport mechanisms were computed based on input meteorological data, simulating changes in air quality and subsequent exposure levels of the population under different climate change scenarios.
Our team chose to simulate the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) to assess air quality and health benefits. SSP5-8.5 represents a pathway characterized by high radiative forcing. The choice of this socioeconomic scenario is based on the fact that SSP5 is the sole scenario within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway framework with emissions reaching a level sufficient to generate a radiative forcing of 8.5W/m2 by the year 2100.
In the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, with a temperature increase exceeding 4 degrees Celsius, the scenario assumes continuous development of fossil fuels, closure of coal-fired power plants, and a 50% contribution of natural gas power plants to the overall electricity consumption. Taiwan's annual electricity consumption is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to 2022, resulting in a 73% reduction in NOx emissions in the power sector. If a net-zero strategy is implemented by 2050, overall PM2.5 concentrations decrease, but 8-hour ozone levels in the southern region rise in October. We found that the impact of meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration ranges from 9.2% to 19.5%.
Regarding health benefits, in the high net-zero pathway (2.5% annual electricity consumption growth), the closure of coal-fired power plants and an increase in electricity generation from gas-fired power plants result in a 9.2% to 19.5% reduction in PM2.5-related health impacts. This translates to preventing 1,743 premature deaths attributed to PM2.5, with an estimated health monetization value of 1,984 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD).
In future research, it is imperative to establish a dedicated system for Taiwan encompassing climate change scenarios, air quality, and health benefits. Simulating a broader range of climate change scenarios within this system would provide valuable references for both government agencies and the public.
Our team chose to simulate the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) to assess air quality and health benefits. SSP5-8.5 represents a pathway characterized by high radiative forcing. The choice of this socioeconomic scenario is based on the fact that SSP5 is the sole scenario within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway framework with emissions reaching a level sufficient to generate a radiative forcing of 8.5W/m2 by the year 2100.
In the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, with a temperature increase exceeding 4 degrees Celsius, the scenario assumes continuous development of fossil fuels, closure of coal-fired power plants, and a 50% contribution of natural gas power plants to the overall electricity consumption. Taiwan's annual electricity consumption is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to 2022, resulting in a 73% reduction in NOx emissions in the power sector. If a net-zero strategy is implemented by 2050, overall PM2.5 concentrations decrease, but 8-hour ozone levels in the southern region rise in October. We found that the impact of meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration ranges from 9.2% to 19.5%.
Regarding health benefits, in the high net-zero pathway (2.5% annual electricity consumption growth), the closure of coal-fired power plants and an increase in electricity generation from gas-fired power plants result in a 9.2% to 19.5% reduction in PM2.5-related health impacts. This translates to preventing 1,743 premature deaths attributed to PM2.5, with an estimated health monetization value of 1,984 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD).
In future research, it is imperative to establish a dedicated system for Taiwan encompassing climate change scenarios, air quality, and health benefits. Simulating a broader range of climate change scenarios within this system would provide valuable references for both government agencies and the public.