1:45 PM - 3:15 PM
[O08-P12] What we have learned from reconstructing the weather of the Edo period using the records of the weather recorded in the “Ikeda Shrine Diary”
Keywords:Inatsuka Family Diary, Ikeda Shrine Diary, detail rate, multiple regression analysis, Piani's method
1. Outline
Today's extreme weather is said to be caused by global warming, but what was the weather like in the Edo period? To clarify this, we will create a database of weather descriptions found in historical diaries to reconstruct weather patterns that occurred in the Edo period before official weather station observations had begun.
2.Last year's results: The Inatsuka Family Diary
To reconstruct the weather of the Edo period, a period before weather station observations, using information about the weather found in the Inatsuka Family Diary (1758-1912).
The diary was kept by the Inatsuka Family, which ran a sake brewery in Ikeda Village, Settsu, Osaka, since the Edo period.
We decided to use multiple regression analysis to recover sunshine hours and precipitation occurrence rates prior to the Osaka Meteorological Observatory observations. Multiple regression analysis is the expression of the objective variable as a function of two or more explanatory variables, in this case the rate of precipitation occurrence prior to 1883.
The fact that the trend of precipitation occurrence rate had been steadily increasing in the period from 1758 to 1912 suggests that the temperatures may have been gradually increasing from the mid-Edo period to the end of the Meiji period.
3. This year's research: The Ikeda Shrine Diary
This year, two diaries written in the same place were connected to reconstruct the precipitation occurrence rate, etc. The diaries used in this study were mainly from the periods 1715-1768 and 1819-1850. The "Ikeda Shrine Diary" used in this study focuses on the periods 1715-1768 and 1819-1850, when there are few missing data.
We have attempted original research to quantitatively reconstruct long-term weather conditions further back in time by connecting sunshine hours and precipitation rates obtained from weather descriptions in two historical documents written in the same place as last year's Inatsuka Family Diary, but at different times of writing.
Previous studies have shown that weather descriptions (precipitation occurrence rate) in historical documents are influenced by the detail of diary entries. Therefore, in order to correct for this bias, we introduced the " Piani's method" this year.
A reconstruction of the precipitation occurrence rate in the Ikeda Shrine Diary showed a slight upturn from 1715 to 1766. Before the diary was written, there was a cold period called the Maunder Minimum, when the number of sunspots observed decreased and solar magnetic activity weakened.
5. Future Prospects
We believe that this research can be used as an assessment to examine weather trends during the Edo period and to organize and analyze the anthropogenic and natural causes of global warming in today's climate of concern about extreme weather events.
Today's extreme weather is said to be caused by global warming, but what was the weather like in the Edo period? To clarify this, we will create a database of weather descriptions found in historical diaries to reconstruct weather patterns that occurred in the Edo period before official weather station observations had begun.
2.Last year's results: The Inatsuka Family Diary
To reconstruct the weather of the Edo period, a period before weather station observations, using information about the weather found in the Inatsuka Family Diary (1758-1912).
The diary was kept by the Inatsuka Family, which ran a sake brewery in Ikeda Village, Settsu, Osaka, since the Edo period.
We decided to use multiple regression analysis to recover sunshine hours and precipitation occurrence rates prior to the Osaka Meteorological Observatory observations. Multiple regression analysis is the expression of the objective variable as a function of two or more explanatory variables, in this case the rate of precipitation occurrence prior to 1883.
The fact that the trend of precipitation occurrence rate had been steadily increasing in the period from 1758 to 1912 suggests that the temperatures may have been gradually increasing from the mid-Edo period to the end of the Meiji period.
3. This year's research: The Ikeda Shrine Diary
This year, two diaries written in the same place were connected to reconstruct the precipitation occurrence rate, etc. The diaries used in this study were mainly from the periods 1715-1768 and 1819-1850. The "Ikeda Shrine Diary" used in this study focuses on the periods 1715-1768 and 1819-1850, when there are few missing data.
We have attempted original research to quantitatively reconstruct long-term weather conditions further back in time by connecting sunshine hours and precipitation rates obtained from weather descriptions in two historical documents written in the same place as last year's Inatsuka Family Diary, but at different times of writing.
Previous studies have shown that weather descriptions (precipitation occurrence rate) in historical documents are influenced by the detail of diary entries. Therefore, in order to correct for this bias, we introduced the " Piani's method" this year.
A reconstruction of the precipitation occurrence rate in the Ikeda Shrine Diary showed a slight upturn from 1715 to 1766. Before the diary was written, there was a cold period called the Maunder Minimum, when the number of sunspots observed decreased and solar magnetic activity weakened.
5. Future Prospects
We believe that this research can be used as an assessment to examine weather trends during the Edo period and to organize and analyze the anthropogenic and natural causes of global warming in today's climate of concern about extreme weather events.