[S-VC29] Monitoring and assessment of volcanic activities

[SVC29-10] Geological observation of eruption and eruption sequence scenario

★Invited Papers

*Teruki Oikawa¹ (1.GSJ, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology )

Keywords:eruption sequence scenario, Probabilistic Volcanic Event Trees, understanding volcanoes, observation of eruption, disaster mitigation

Volcanic eruptions cause various phenomena to occur from time to time. Therefore, it is desirable to make an eruption sequence scenario in advance that organizes what is likely to happen. In this presentation, I will talk about my experience what scenarios I used to make decisions the Shinmoedake 2017-18 eruption and the Ontake 2014 eruption.
Eruption sequence scenarios are created for various purposes, there are a variety of styles of eruption sequence scenarios. Therefore, this presentation will also introduce Probabilistic Volcanic Event Trees (Newhall and Hobrit 2002; Newhall and Pallister, 2015), which are widely used for prediction in disaster prevention sites, and will also explain the difference between eruption sequence scenarios for volcanic disaster mitigation and for understanding volcanoes.

References:
Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull. Volcanol., Vol. 64, 3–20.
Newhall and Pallister (2015) Using Multiple Data Sets to Populate Probabilistic Volcanic Event Trees. Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters, 203-232.