17:15 〜 19:15
[ACG42-P02] Advanced studies of climate change projection – Area Theme 2: Biogeochemical modeling and climate simulations for carbon budget assessment
キーワード：気候変動、地球システムモデル、IPCC 、カーボンバジェット、第7次結合モデル相互比較計画、ティッピング要素
The Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection, or SENTAN (abbreviation taken from its Japanese name), is a national project for climate change projection launched in June 2022. The program aims to improve our understanding of climate change mechanisms, reduce uncertainties, and create highly accurate projections that can be used as the scientific basis for developing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. While the entire program deals with a wide range of natural scientific aspects and consequences of climate change, Area Theme 2 focuses on the development of a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM) incorporating biogeochemical processes with a particular emphasis on contributing to mitigation policy, such as elaborate evaluation of the remaining carbon budget. Also in perspective is the tipping element issues and an exploration of interactions between climate change and human socio-economics.
As of February 2025, we are tuning the Earth System Model (ESM) that is currently under development so that it can carry out the experiments specified in the CMIP7 Fast Track. The newly developed ESM has features that are not present in the previous versions of MIROC-ESM, such as the full chemistry component. The treatment of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is one of the key foci of this project, results obtained on this aspect include the one that detects contributions of reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions on the slowdown of global warming.
Modelling wild fires is another area of focus for this project. A model with high reproducibility of observational data is being developed using AI-based approaches. It has been shown that incorporating socioeconomic factors such as GDP as input can improve the reproducibility of the recent decreasing trend in burned area. Other notable results regarding the treatment of terrestrial vegetation include the possible Amazonian dieback occurring under extreme warming of over 6°C.
Furthermore, a version of the ESM that incorporates agriculture with irrigation and coupled with an integrated assessment model (IAM) often utilized in the field of socioeconomics, is also being developed. Such development enables experiments that allow for the interactions between climate and human society through land use, labor productivity, and air-conditioning energy demand.
We hope that the research findings can be used as a scientific basis for planning measures against climate change through, e.g., contributions to IPCC’s next assessment reports.
As of February 2025, we are tuning the Earth System Model (ESM) that is currently under development so that it can carry out the experiments specified in the CMIP7 Fast Track. The newly developed ESM has features that are not present in the previous versions of MIROC-ESM, such as the full chemistry component. The treatment of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is one of the key foci of this project, results obtained on this aspect include the one that detects contributions of reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions on the slowdown of global warming.
Modelling wild fires is another area of focus for this project. A model with high reproducibility of observational data is being developed using AI-based approaches. It has been shown that incorporating socioeconomic factors such as GDP as input can improve the reproducibility of the recent decreasing trend in burned area. Other notable results regarding the treatment of terrestrial vegetation include the possible Amazonian dieback occurring under extreme warming of over 6°C.
Furthermore, a version of the ESM that incorporates agriculture with irrigation and coupled with an integrated assessment model (IAM) often utilized in the field of socioeconomics, is also being developed. Such development enables experiments that allow for the interactions between climate and human society through land use, labor productivity, and air-conditioning energy demand.
We hope that the research findings can be used as a scientific basis for planning measures against climate change through, e.g., contributions to IPCC’s next assessment reports.