4:15 PM - 4:30 PM
[MAG32-09] Impact Assessment of Fog on Renewable Energy in Small Islands under Climate Change: An Application of Model Downscaling
Keywords:Climate Change, WRF, Fog, Renewable Energy
Climate change has a significant impact on islands, affecting their economies, societies, infrastructure, and energy systems. Previous studies have indicated that fog can cause errors in forecasting incident solar radiation and photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Kinmen Island, located at the junction of the Pacific Ocean and the Asian continent, has historically experienced frequent fog events. However, Kinmen's climatic conditions—characterized by strong winds, abundant sunshine, and low rainfall—make it an ideal location for renewable energy development.
This study focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of fog in Kinmen Island under climate change scenarios. It employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model along with literature review and data analysis to explore the potential causes and extent of fog’s impact on solar power generation. Using dynamic downscaling simulations, the study integrates environmental variables such as temperature, cloud cover, and air pressure. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), historical data is combined to project conditions for the year 2050.
Preliminary results indicate that fog events are mainly concentrated from March to May each year, marking the high fog season. According data from 1991 to 2022 reveal that Kinmen Island experienced a total of 829 fog days, with an average of 26 fog days per year. A comprehensive analysis shows a decreasing trend in the number of fog days over time. Additionally, solar power generation from 2014 to 2023 increased by approximately 9.17%, representing stable growth in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Currently, Kinmen’s renewable energy is primarily derived from solar power (83.6%), followed by wind power (15.3%), and other renewable sources (1.1%).
Under climate change, increased fog frequency may have either positive or negative effects on renewable energy generation. This study provides insights into the potential future distribution of fog, contributing to sustainable development and enhancing energy utilization strategies for Kinmen and similar regions. By understanding the dynamics of fog, policymakers can implement strategies to mitigate its impacts, ensuring economic stability and improving the future quality of life for local residents.
This study focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of fog in Kinmen Island under climate change scenarios. It employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model along with literature review and data analysis to explore the potential causes and extent of fog’s impact on solar power generation. Using dynamic downscaling simulations, the study integrates environmental variables such as temperature, cloud cover, and air pressure. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), historical data is combined to project conditions for the year 2050.
Preliminary results indicate that fog events are mainly concentrated from March to May each year, marking the high fog season. According data from 1991 to 2022 reveal that Kinmen Island experienced a total of 829 fog days, with an average of 26 fog days per year. A comprehensive analysis shows a decreasing trend in the number of fog days over time. Additionally, solar power generation from 2014 to 2023 increased by approximately 9.17%, representing stable growth in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Currently, Kinmen’s renewable energy is primarily derived from solar power (83.6%), followed by wind power (15.3%), and other renewable sources (1.1%).
Under climate change, increased fog frequency may have either positive or negative effects on renewable energy generation. This study provides insights into the potential future distribution of fog, contributing to sustainable development and enhancing energy utilization strategies for Kinmen and similar regions. By understanding the dynamics of fog, policymakers can implement strategies to mitigate its impacts, ensuring economic stability and improving the future quality of life for local residents.