4:30 PM - 4:45 PM
[MAG32-10] Solar Irradiance Nowcast by Cloud Tracking and Extrapolation
Keywords:All-sky camera, solar irradiance
Solar Irradiance Nowcast by Cloud Tracking and Extrapolation
As the proportion of solar power increases year by year, solar irradiance nowcasting is essential for reinforcing the resilience of electric power systems. Clouds in the sky are continuously in flux, making solar irradiance vary with time. Therefore, absorbing the distribution and motion of clouds is the way to predict solar irradiance. In this study, we utilized a straightforward spatial intersection method to track cloud motion observed by an all-sky imager (ASI) in Tainan, Taiwan. The method updates cloud velocity every minute, which was the average cloud velocity derived from cloud locations observed over the last five minutes. Extrapolation is then performed to predict cloud distribution within the forthcoming 10 minutes , and the corresponding solar irradiance values are further estimated. Harnessing simplicity and speed, our method eschews databases and pre-trained models, delivering robust results within a minute on any modern computer. The present method requires no database or pre-trained model and can be done within a minute using any modern computer. An ASI is expected to be a standard instrument in many solar power plants, and our method can be the simplest but most beneficial way to nowcast solar irradiance in these solar power plants in the near future.
As the proportion of solar power increases year by year, solar irradiance nowcasting is essential for reinforcing the resilience of electric power systems. Clouds in the sky are continuously in flux, making solar irradiance vary with time. Therefore, absorbing the distribution and motion of clouds is the way to predict solar irradiance. In this study, we utilized a straightforward spatial intersection method to track cloud motion observed by an all-sky imager (ASI) in Tainan, Taiwan. The method updates cloud velocity every minute, which was the average cloud velocity derived from cloud locations observed over the last five minutes. Extrapolation is then performed to predict cloud distribution within the forthcoming 10 minutes , and the corresponding solar irradiance values are further estimated. Harnessing simplicity and speed, our method eschews databases and pre-trained models, delivering robust results within a minute on any modern computer. The present method requires no database or pre-trained model and can be done within a minute using any modern computer. An ASI is expected to be a standard instrument in many solar power plants, and our method can be the simplest but most beneficial way to nowcast solar irradiance in these solar power plants in the near future.