地域計画

[IV-09] Study on a method to improve prediction accuracy of future population distribution

*杉本 達哉¹、天方 匡純¹、神永 希¹ (1. 八千代エンジニヤリング株式会社)

Keywords:future population distribution, prediction, ensemble learning, bagging, land use

It is desirable to develop infrastructure in consideration of the population prediction distribution in the future as infrastructure will be used not only by the present people but also by the people in the future. However, in the contents of prior research, there are some problems in the prediction accuracy. In this paper, in order to improve the accuracy of the future population distribution, we developed a method that applied probability distribution to population migration settings. Furthermore, as a result of applying for the actual area using this, we knew that the prediction accuracy of this method was higher than that of the prior research.