【企画】リスク評価とその応用

[SS02A-02] Real-time Tsunami Force Prediction Using Surrogate Model of 3D Tsunami Simulation

*Kenta Tozato¹, Shinsuke Takase², Shuji Moriguchi¹, Kenjiro Terada¹, Yu Otake¹, Yo Fukutani³, Kazuya Nojima⁴, Masaaki Sakuraba⁴, Hiromu Yokosu⁵ (1. Tohoku university, 2. Hachinohe Institute of Technology, 3. Kanto Gakuin University, 4. Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., 5. Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.)

Keywords:3D Tsunami Simulation, Real-time Prediction, Surrogate Model, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition

This study presents a framework for real-time tsunami force predictions using a surrogate model based on precomputed results of 3D numerical simulations. An area affected by the tsunami caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is targeted and the proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to the analysis results to extract the spatial modes that represent the characteristics of tsunami forces. The constructed surrogate model can predict the spatial distribution of tsunami forces almost instantaneously and can be utilized for real-time prediction.