第５部門③

[24013-18-05] Prediction of the probability of overflow by predicting heavy rainfall assuming a rise in temperature (Proceedings of Symposium on Applied Mechanics)

*Takashi Mihara¹, Shin-ichi Nishimura¹, Shibata Toshifumi¹, Syuku Takayuki¹ (1. Okayama University)

Keywords:reservoir, climate change, heavy rainfall

In recent years, with the increase of heavy rainfall and the aging of earth-fill dams, the risk of collapse of many earth-fill dams has increased. Therefore, it is desirable to establish criteria for decision-making regarding the priority of renovation and the scale of renovation among earth-fill dams require renovation. In this study, to model earth-fill dams breaches from the occurrence of heavy rains to overflow, We predict heavy rainfall and the current and the future probabilities of the overflows for the earth-fill dams .