11:15 〜 11:30
[HCG26-03] Added values of regional multi-ensemble statistical downscaling approach in CORDEX Asia
キーワード：ダウンスケーリング、マルチモデルアンサンブル、CORDEX、アジア
To develop reliable regional climate information for climate change adaptation measures, we assess added values of regional multi-ensemble dynamical and statistical downscaling in collaboration with researchers of geoscience, social science and humanities, and officials of local governments in Japan and CORDEX Asia.
Though we have conducted dynamical downscaling experiments with horizontal grid spacing of 5km and 2km to reproduce regional climate information using database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) to detect the climate change impact in this region, it is not enough to investigate its uncertainty caused by the structural differences in models.
Multi-model large ensemble regional climate scenarios over Japan and CORDEX Asia are developed by using CMIP5 GCMs and two statistical downscaling approaches (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and Bias Correction and Constructed Analogs(BCCA)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050).
This research for uncertainty information of the regional climate scenarios is intended to provide end-users to make an informed selection and decision making.
Though we have conducted dynamical downscaling experiments with horizontal grid spacing of 5km and 2km to reproduce regional climate information using database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) to detect the climate change impact in this region, it is not enough to investigate its uncertainty caused by the structural differences in models.
Multi-model large ensemble regional climate scenarios over Japan and CORDEX Asia are developed by using CMIP5 GCMs and two statistical downscaling approaches (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and Bias Correction and Constructed Analogs(BCCA)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050).
This research for uncertainty information of the regional climate scenarios is intended to provide end-users to make an informed selection and decision making.