[2D01-08] PRA Method 2

[2D04] Study on Probabilistic Approach for Best Estimate of Fuel Rod Fracture

*Hiroki Tanaka¹, Takafumi Narukawa¹, Takashi Takata¹ (1. UTokyo)

Keywords:Fuel Rod Fracture, PRA, BEPU, Bayesian Inference, LOCA

In existing risk assessments of nuclear facilities, while the analysis of plant responses such as fuel cladding temperature and system analysis have become more sophisticated, the core damage criteria remain conservative based on deterministic approach, resulting in an imbalance in the assessment. This study explores a probabilistic approach for the best estimation including uncertainty of fuel rod fracture during loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), combining a fuel rod fracture probability estimation model with plant response analysis. This approach aims to provide a more rational basis for core damage determination.