Poster

[1Z101] Quantitative analysis of the impact of conflict on diversified farm management in Palestine - For agricultural recovery and stable farming

*Tomoki NAKAMURA¹ (1. Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.)

Keywords:Diversified farm management, Agricultural recovery, War, Ordered probit model, Palestine, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip

Israel continues to carry out airstrikes and military invasions in the Gaza Strip of the Palestinian territories, and occupation and military operations are also taking place in the West Bank. Various conflict-related incidents are impacting Palestinian farmers both physically and psychologically. Due to the unpredictable risks in conflict areas, diversified farm management, composed of multiple types of products, contributes to risk hedging and income stabilization for farmers. This study aims to quantitatively assess how these incidents affect diversified farm management and to recommend technical support for agricultural recovery and stable farming. In general, Palestinian agriculture consists of types of products such as field crop, vegetables, fruit trees/olives, and livestock. Diversified farm management refers to the practices that involve the combination of these multiple types of products. This study uses microdata from the 2010 and 2021 agricultural censuses, along with location data and the number of battles, explosions, violence against civilians, protests, and riots that occurred between the two census periods, to estimate the impact of these incidents on the number of types of products managed by farmers using an ordered probit model. The results show that in the West Bank, Israeli-led incidents tend to reduce the number of types of products, while Palestinian-led incidents tend to increase them. No significant impact was observed for incidents led by both sides. On the other hand, in the Gaza Strip, similar results as the West Bank were observed, but with differing results from Israeli-led explosions. Since airstrikes occur in most villages in the Gaza Strip, and the scale of damage varies greatly, this may account for the differences in their impact. As a recommendation for the recovery of Palestinian agriculture and stable farming, technical support is considered necessary to maintain diversified farm management in villages where incidents that hinder agricultural diversification have occurred.