信頼、健康、紛争：危機への社会経済的対応

[2E204] ミャンマーにおける紛争避難パターンの決定要因についてー調整媒介分析の試み

*翟 亜蕾¹ (1. 京都大学)

キーワード： Internal displaced persons、 internal conflict、 fleeing decision-making、 Myanmar、Moderated Mediation Analysis

Factors influencing fleeing decision-making among households affected by prolonged civil war are critically important to understand but have been often overlooked. Using detailed household-level data (n=214) collected in shan state, Myanmar from 2014 to 2021, this study is the first to empirically document the key determinants of conflict-driven fleeing patterns among households, focusing on the choice, degree, and duration of fleeing, with particular emphasis on the effects of household wealth and its structure.First, the benchmark regression results show that while household wealth is not the only decisive factor affecting fleeing behavior, poorer households are statistically more hesitant to evacuate, more likely to leave some members behind, and tend to have shorter fleeing durations. Second, we further explore the mechanisms through which wealth influences fleeing decisions by examining two moderators—fixed assets and the level of risk—and a moderated mediator, financial assets, which are strongly correlated with the choice, degree, and duration of fleeing.The results on the mechanisms of fleeing decision-making highlight that capital relevant to a household's livelihood may hinder their fleeing behavior. Additionally, the direct impact of civil conflicts on poor households is linked to hesitant and insufficient fleeing due to poverty. This study, therefore, provides valuable insights into the unique challenges faced by marginalized regions and populations enduring prolonged civil strife.