[M-ZZ47] Renewable energy and earth science

[MZZ47-05] Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Ensemble Weather Forecasting

*Daisuke Nohara¹, Yuki Kanno¹ (1.Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

Keywords:photovoltaic, ensemble forecast, probabilistic forecast

Renewable energy such as photovoltaic generation becomes widespread in the world. Since the renewable energy has character of volatility due in part to time evolution of weather system, prediction of the power generations is one of the most cost-effective and easily implemented tools. Despite the recent increase in the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models, there is a limitation to reduce the prediction error. The limitation can be addressed through the use of probabilistic prediction. Herein, we present a probabilistic photovoltaic prediction method based on a numerical weather prediction model, using a power conversion table empirically estimated from the relationship between area-averaged solar radiation and area-integrated photovoltaic generation to project photovoltaic power while accounting for the inherent uncertainty associated with the conversion table. The established probabilistic prediction method exhibits high statistical consistency and reliably captures the confidence interval of photovoltaic power variability.