[M-ZZ47] Renewable energy and earth science

[MZZ47-06] Consideration of the use of the meso-ensemble prediction system under high penetration of renewable energy in future

*Hideaki Ohtake^1,3, Takashi Oozeki¹, Takahiro Takamatsu¹, Yuya Takane¹, Yusuke Mori⁴, Shinji Wakao⁴, Fumichika Uno⁵, Masahiro Kazumori², Toshiyuki Nakaegawa³ (1.National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 2.Japan Meteorological Agency, 3.Meteorological Research Institute, 4.Waseda University, 5.Nihon University)

Keywords:renewable energy, solar power, electric power demand, power supply and demand, energy management

Recently, a large amount of photovoltaic (PV) power systems has been installed in Japan. The value of PV power generation forecast based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model has become higher in order to maintain the balance between the power generation and electric power demand. On the other hand, the importance of the uncertainty of day-ahead PV power forecast based on the NWP has increased because of large prediction errors of PV power generation. In our research institute, AIST, we collaborate with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the meteorological research institute of the JMA and Nihon University to perform the research project of “The study of renewable energy power forecast using the meso-ensemble prediction system (MEPS)”. We start to study intra day-ahead and day-ahead forecasts using the MEPS for energy management with renewable energy. In this talk, we are going to introduce the treatment of the research project.