Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2021

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S (Solid Earth Sciences ) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS03] New insights in Earthquake predictability: modelling and forecasting

Sat. Jun 5, 2021 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Ch.13

convener:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

5:15 PM - 6:30 PM

[SSS03-P01] A spherical version of the space-time ETAS model

*Jiancang Zhuang1, Ziyao Xiong1, Yosihiko Ogata1 (1.Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:ETAS model, Spherical, earthquake clustering, earthquake forecast

In this study, by modifying the spatial response function in the triggering term, we propose and implement a spherical version of the space-time ETAS model. At the small local scale, the new model is equivalent to the original 2D planar ETAS model. We analyze and forecast global seismicity with this new model, and test some interesting hypotheses related to global seismicity, such as antipolar triggering phenomena.