[S15] AM-1

[S15-06] Constructing new empirical envelope function and GMPE for estimating the seismic intensity in combination with IPF method

*Hong Peng¹, Masumi Yamada², Stephen Wu^1,3 (1. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2. Kyoto University, 3. The Graduate University for Advanced Studies)

The earthquake early warning (EEW) system has been widely applied in many regions (e.g., Japan and California). The integrated particle filter (IPF) and propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) are the two working EEW system in Japan. Generally, IPF provides faster but less accurate predictions compared to PLUM. Regarding the hazard assessment, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) selects the larger SI from these systems and broadcasts a single warning to the public. In this study, we introduce a new evaluation method that can compare the performance of the two systems in real-time. First, we have assembled the largest benchmark database from the seismic events recorded over the past 20 years from JMA, Kyoshin Network (K-NET), and Kiban Kyoshin Network (KiK-NET), converting all of the seismic waveforms into SI curves. Then, we develop several different empirical envelope functions to simulate the SI curves. The statistical analysis of the empirical envelope functions indicate that the one half and one sigmoid function should be the most accurate one for simulation. Among these, we try some new ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) candidates which estimate the SI at locations where the earthquakes have not yet arrived. The effectiveness all GMPE candidates will be tested on real seismic events in Japan.