Building Disaster Resilient Cities and Communities I

[044] Predictive Simulation of Disaster Risk Change in Urban Declining Areas

Giyoung Byun, Wonjun No, Chul Woong Park, Ha-Kyeong Lee, Youngchul Kim

キーワード：Urban Regeneration, Declining Cities, Disaster Risk Simulation

In declining cities, population has declined, jobs have disappeared, and buildings have become older. Residents and facilities in declining areas are vulnerable to disaster risks. When making regeneration plans for declining areas in various cities, it is important to evaluate and predict various disaster risks. It helps identify issues in those declining areas. Since previous studies usually have analyzed and predicted the disaster risks in a large-scale area (Wang et al., 2014), it is difficult to prioritize existing disaster risks in a small declining area. When predicting disaster risks, relevant studies have often used multiple risk scenarios in urban areas (Navarro et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020; Ye et al., 2020; Yin et al., 2011). Therefore, this study sought to predict disaster risk changes by simulating in small-scale declining areas with scenarios. We calculated scores of disaster risks according to the IPCC disaster risk assessment (Field et al., 2014) by evaluating disaster risks on a small grid based on field surveys and spatial data (Byun et al., 2021). Next, by changing yearly-change values in chosen indicators this study simulated disaster risk changes in scoring the yearly-change values for a long-term period based on climate change scenarios for predictive simulation. As a result, this study proposed a disaster risk prediction simulation for heavy rainfall and snow by using the annual change values of disaster risk factors in small-scale urban regeneration areas. Our findings help analyze and predict disaster risks in small urban declining areas. The proposed model is expected to simulate disaster risk changes and prioritize urgent locations in small urban declining areas.