[3A1-GS-5] Agents:

[3A1-GS-5-02] Prediction of COVID-19 pandemic based on number of cases per sentinel using the mathematical model of infectious disease

〇Ryotaro Tajima¹, Shogo Miyazawa¹, Yoshitake Kitanishi¹ (1. Shionogi & Co., Ltd.)

Keywords:mathematical model, epidemic prediction, COVID-19

The social impact of the spread of COVID-19 infection continues to be significant. Signs of the spread of infection serves as a basis for various decision-making. However, when COVID-19 was reclassified as a Class-5 infection, the daily full count became a weekly sentinel reporting. Daily data is required to calculate the effective reproduction, which is one of the epidemiological indicators, making it difficult to calculate. In this study, we constructed a prediction model with the aim of understanding the spread of COVID-19 infection at an early stage based on the number of sentinel reports. From the number of weekly sentinel reports, the model could estimate the effective reproduction by predicting the number of infected people daily. A simulation conducted using data during the 8^th/9^th waves showed a correlation between the calculated effective reproduction and the subsequent spread of the epidemic, suggesting its usefulness in the early stages of the epidemic.