1:30 PM - 1:45 PM
[073] Analysis of Travel Time Reliability and Service Level for Airport Shuttle Bus to New Airport at Ulaanbaatar City, Mongolia
Keywords:airport ground access, Mongolia, time reliability, new mode, shuttle bus service
Air is a major mode of transport for Mongolians and connects them with the outside world. This mode of transport is being facilitated by a newly operational international airport named “Chinggis Khan” (henceforth “the new airport”) since July 2021. Currently, the car is the only travel mode choice for air passengers to access the new airport. The route through which they must travel is 2.7 times longer than the route to the previous airport. Therefore, the travel time is longer and the travel cost is higher; the public transport service to this airport is not yet operational. Considering the difficulties in accessing the new airport, this study proposes an attractive shuttle bus service to the new airport by studying the travel time reliability and fare suitability. In this regard, it must be mentioned that no known research on airport ground access in Mongolia has been conducted so far. Therefore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first to define the factors that affect Mongolian air passengers’ choices regarding ground access modes to airports. Three different datasets were collected to understand the traffic condition and user preference towards shuttle bus service. Traffic condition data were collected by GPS devices installed into the airport commuter buses of airport employees. User preference (RP) data and stated preference (SP) data were collected through an online survey of 300 respondents. According to the traffic condition data, the possibility of delay is higher in the morning and evening than during off-peak hours. Further, RP data analysis revealed that cars are the dominant travel mode comprising over 80% of trips. However, SP data aggregation results showed that the bus should be the dominant mode of transport. The share of buses is inversely proportional to car travel time reliability, and thus, it decreases when car travel time reliability has good performance. Contrarily, the share of buses increases with improved bus service levels, such as travel time, fare, and travel time reliability. The binary choice estimation model result showed that car reliability is insignificant among factors influencing passengers’ decision-making regarding mode choice. Further, travel time, cost, and reliability are significant attributes and negatively correlate with passengers’ likelihood to choose this mode of transport.