Oral presentation

[1O01-07] Advanced PRA Methodology

Wed. Sep 11, 2019 10:00 AM - 11:55 AM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Koichi Nakamura(CRIEPI)

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10:00 AM - 10:15 AM

[1O01] Application of Surrogate Models for Dynamic PRA

(1)Investigation of Applicability for Limit Surface Prediction of PCT

*Ikuo Kinoshita¹ (1. INSS)

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM

[1O02] Application of dynamic PRA to the design optimization of sodium-cooled fast reactors

*Miku Ishizaki¹, Futoshi Tanaka¹, Hiroshi Sakaba¹, Chihiro Nishizaki¹, Tsuyoshi Sawairi¹, Atsushi Kato², Akihiro Ide³, Akihiro Shibata³ (1. MHI, 2. JAEA, 3. MFBR)

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM

[1O03] Development of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology for External Event

Part 1 Concept of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology and Development of Multi-Unit PRA Considering Frequency Correlation Using DQFM Methodology (Framework)

*HITOSHI MUTA¹, YASUKI OHTORI¹ (1. Tokyo City University)

10:45 AM - 11:00 AM

[1O04] Development of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology for External Event

Part 2: Proposal of Interaction Model for Analysing Nuclear Facilities Accident

*Kenji MORI¹, Hitoshi MUTA¹, Yasuki OHTORI¹ (1. Tokyo City Univ.)

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM

[1O05] Development of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology for External Event

Part3:Bayesian estimation for generating fragility curve of high fidelity structure model

*Yoshifumi Katayama¹, Toshiaki Sakai¹, Yasuki Ohtori², Hitoshi Muta² (1. CRIEPI, 2. Tokyo City Univ.)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[1O06] Research on regional risk analysis method with Continuous Markov Monte Carlo and Bayesian network

(1)Introduction to regional risk analysis method

*Satoshi Shinzaki², Akira Yamaguchi¹, Sunghyon Jang¹, Masayuki Hijiya², Kagetomo Miyahara², Kensuke Toyoshima² (1. Univ. of Tokyo, 2. NEL)

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

[1O07] Research on regional risk analysis method with Continuous Markov Monte Carlo and Bayesian network

(2)Preliminary development of regional risk analysis model

*Sunghyon Jang¹, Akira Yamaguchi¹, Masayuki Hijiya², Kagetomo Miyahara², Kensuke Toyoshima², Satoshi Shinzaki² (1. The University of Tokyo, 2. Nuclear Engineering, Ltd)

Time reserved for Chair （11:45 AM - 11:55 AM）

Oral presentation

[1O08-13] PRA Technology 1

Wed. Sep 11, 2019 2:45 PM - 4:25 PM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Hiroshi Ujita(AdvanceSoft)

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2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[1O08] Trial Evaluation of Human Error Probability by IDHEAS method

*Takuro Tobo¹, Nobuhisa Takezawa¹, Go Tanaka¹, Yuji Komori¹, Hiroyuki Takeuchi¹ (1. TOSHIBA ESS)

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[1O09] The Progress of PRA model sophistication for SHIKA NPS Unit2

(1)Failure Mode Effects Analysis for Identification Initiating Event of SHIKA NPS Unit2 during Power Operation(Level1)

*Toshiyuki Aratani^1,2, Keisuke Takashima^1,2, Mutsuhiro Nakada¹, Toshihiro Aida¹, Shinichi Hamatani¹, Takayuki Negishi², Atsuo Ikeda² (1. Hokuriku Electric Power Company, 2. Nuclear Engineering and Services Company)

3:15 PM - 3:30 PM

[1O10] The Progress of PRA model sophistication for SHIKA NPS Unit2

(2)Evaluation results of HRA Calculator and improvement activity of SHIKA NPS Unit2

*You Higashiyama¹, Mutsuhiro Nakada¹, Toshihiro Aida¹, Shinichi Hamatani¹, Takayuki Negishi², Atsuo Ikeda², Keisuke Takashima^1,2 (1. Hokuriku Electric Power Company, 2. Nuclear Engineering and Services Company)

3:30 PM - 3:45 PM

[1O11] KK-6,7 Project Internal Event Operating Level 1 PRA Model Sophistication Progress Report

(7)Success Criteria Analysis Using GOTHIC

*Ryotaro Sato¹, Shunsuke Tanno¹, Teruyoshi Sato¹, Toshiteru Saito¹, Sho Takarada², Takatoshi Futatsugi² (1. TEPCO SYSTEMS CORPORATION, 2. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.)

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM

[1O12] KK-6,7 Project Internal Event Operating Level 1 PRA Model Sophistication Progress Report

(8)Dependency Analysis between Post-Initiator HFEs

*Yuuya Ootaki¹, Natsuki Shiraishi¹, Shunsuke Tanno¹, Teruyoshi Sato¹, Toshiteru Saito¹, Sho Takarada², Takatoshi Futatsugi² (1. TEPCO SYSTEMS CORPORATION, 2. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.)

4:00 PM - 4:15 PM

[1O13] Proposal of the Alpha factor formularization method for the staggered test

*Tomohiko Ikegawa¹, Takahisa Matsuzaki¹, Ryusuke Kimura² (1. Hitachi, 2. HGNE)

Time reserved for Chair （4:15 PM - 4:25 PM）

Oral presentation

[1O14-19] PRA Technology 2

Wed. Sep 11, 2019 4:25 PM - 6:00 PM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Sunghyon Jang(Univ. of Tokyo)

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4:25 PM - 4:40 PM

[1O14] Establishment of technical basis on source term evaluation method for Level 2 PRA

(1)Challenges in source term evaluation for Level 2 PRA and approach to them

*Koichi Nakamura¹, Masato Nakamura², Yuki Takahashi², Yuu Nakajima² (1. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2. MRI Research Associates, Inc)

4:40 PM - 4:55 PM

[1O15] Establishment of technical basis on source term evaluation method for Level 2 PRA

(2)Evaluation for models characteristics of FP aerosol behavior in MAAP code

*Yuu Nakajima¹, Masato Nakamura¹, Yuki Takahashi¹, Koichi Nakamura² (1. MRA, 2. CRIEPI)

4:55 PM - 5:10 PM

[1O16] Establishment of technical basis on source term evaluation method for Level 2 PRA

(3)Analysis on FP aerosol experiments applying MAAP code

*Yuki Takahashi¹, Yuu Nakajima¹, Masato Nakamura¹, Koichi Nakamura² (1. MRA, 2. CRIEPI)

5:10 PM - 5:25 PM

[1O17] Establishment of technical basis on source term evaluation method for Level 2 PRA

(4)Development of source term uncertainty analysis method applying MAAP code

*Masato Nakamura¹, Yuki Takahashi¹, Yuu Nakajima¹, Koichi Nakamura² (1. MRA, 2. CRIEPI)

5:25 PM - 5:40 PM

[1O18] Determination of design tornado wind speed based on damage probability

*Yuzuru Eguchi¹, Takahiro Murakami¹, Hiromaru Hirakuchi¹, Tetsuya Hayashi², Masashi Kuramasu², Ichiro Tamura² (1. CRIEPI, 2. Chugoku Electric Power Co.)

5:40 PM - 5:55 PM

[1O19] A Framework of RI-PB Design Application for Seismic Events

*Toshiaki Sakai¹, Yoshifumi Katayama¹, Yasuki Ohtori², Hitoshi Muta², Masato Nakajima¹ (1. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2. Tokyo City Univ.)

Time reserved for Chair （5:55 PM - 6:00 PM）

Oral presentation

[2O01-09] Seismic, Fault displacement PRA

Thu. Sep 12, 2019 9:30 AM - 11:55 AM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Hitoshi Muta(Tokyo City Univ.)

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9:30 AM - 9:45 AM

[2O01] Treatment of uncertainty regarding action part of fault displacement (FD) to building foundation on FD fragility evaluation

(1)Outline

*Katsumi Ebisawa¹, Ryusuke HARAGUCHI², Yoshinori MIHARA³, Ayumi Yuyama¹, Toshiaki SAKAI¹, Futoshi Tanaka² (1. Central Research Institute of Power Industry, 2. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., 3. Kajima Corporation)

9:45 AM - 10:00 AM

[2O02] Treatment of uncertainty regarding action part of fault displacement (FD) to building foundation on FD fragility evaluation

(2)Analysis and examination of uncertainty regarding soil and building

*Ayumi Yuyama¹, Yoshinori Mihara², Ryusuke Haraguchi³, Toshiaki Sakai¹, Katsumi Ebisawa¹ (1. CRIEPI, 2. KAJIMA, 3. MHI)

10:00 AM - 10:15 AM

[2O03] Treatment of uncertainty regarding action part of fault displacement (FD) to building foundation on FD fragility evaluation

(3)Analysis and examination of uncertainty regarding component and piping system

*Ryusuke Haraguchi¹, Yoshinori Mihara², Ayumi Yuyama³, Toshiaki Sakai³, Katsumi Ebisawa³ (1. MHI, 2. KAJIMA, 3. CRIEPI)

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM

[2O04] Treatment of uncertainty regarding action part of fault displacement (FD) to building foundation on FD fragility evaluation

(4)Analysis and examination regarding effect on CDF

*Futoshi Tanaka¹, Ryusuke Haraguchi¹, Yoshinori Mihara², Ayumi Yuyama³, Toshiro Sakai³, Katsumi Ebisawa³ (1. MHI, 2. KAJIMA, 3. CRIEPI)

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM

[2O05] Confirmation of V&V of Fault Displacement Fragility Evaluation procedure

(1)Application example of global response model to Shih-Gang dam damage in Chi-Chi Earthquake of Taiwan

*hideaki tsutsumi¹, yuji nikaido², yoshinori mihara², ryusuke haraguchi³, toshiaki sakai¹, katsumi ebisawa¹ (1. Central Research Institute of Electric Powaer Industry , 2. Kajima Corporation, 3. Mitsubishi Heavy Indausties)

10:45 AM - 11:00 AM

[2O06] Confirmation of V&V of Fault Displacement Fragility Evaluation procedure

(2)Application example of local model to Shih-Gang dam damage in Chi-Chi Earthquake of Taiwan

*Yuji Nikaido¹, Yoshinori Mihara¹, Hideaki Tsutsumi², Ryusuke Haraguchi³, Toshiaki Sakai², Katsumi Ebisawa² (1. KAJIMA, 2. CRIEPI, 3. MHI)

11:00 AM - 11:15 AM

[2O07] Analysis and examination of accident scenario regarding functional failure of containment under fault displacement

*Shingo Oda¹, Bumpei Fujioka¹, Futoshi Tanaka², Ryusuke Haraguchi², Yoshinori Mihara³, Shinichi Yoshida⁴, Tsutsumi Hideaki⁵, Toshiro Sakai⁵, Katsumi Ebisawa⁵ (1. Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy, 2. MHI, 3. Kajima, 4. OBAYASHI, 5. CRIEPI)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[2O08] A Research Study of Plant Risk Evaluation for Fault Displacement

An Advanced Evaluation for the Structural Integrity of Crossover Piping System

*Kunihiko Sato¹, Yutaka Suzuki¹, Ryusuke Haraguchi², Kouichi Kamiya³, Tsutomu Ogawa³, Masanobu Kamiya³ (1. MHI NSE, 2. MHI, 3. JAPC)

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

[2O09] Development of Random number generation for Seismic risk assessment

*Shota Terayama¹, Yasuki Ohtori¹, Hitoshi Muta¹ (1. Tokyo City University)

Time reserved for Chair （11:45 AM - 11:55 AM）

Oral presentation

[2O10-18] Tsunami PRA

Thu. Sep 12, 2019 2:45 PM - 5:10 PM Room O (Common Education Bildg. 3F A34)

Chair:Katsumi Ebisawa(CRIEPI)

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2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[2O10] Construction of the technical basis for tsunami PRA

Part 1: Overview of the Tsunami PRA Project

*Hiroyuki Yamada¹, Masafumi Matsuyama¹, Yoshiaki Watanuki¹, Satoshi Nishimura¹, Hiroyuki Takeuchi², Kazuyuki Matsumoto³ (1. CRIEPI, 2. TOSHIBA ESS, 3. Chubu Electric Power)

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[2O11] Construction of the technical basis for tsunami PRA

Part 2: Tsunami input waveforms on the basis of probabilistic tsunami hazard curve for fragility evaluation

*MASAFUMI MATSUYAMA MATSUYAMA¹, Takumi Yoshii¹, Hideki Kaida¹, Naoto Kihara¹, Yoshinori Sato², Mitsuharu Asaka², Kazuo Inagaki², Tomoyuki Amano³, Hayato Mori³, Katsuhide Kato³ (1. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2. Unic Corporation, 3. Chubu Electric Power)

3:15 PM - 3:30 PM

[2O12] Construction of the technical basis for tsunami PRA

Part 3: Fragility Evaluation method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure
-Evaluation Method-

*Yoshiaki Watanuki¹, Masafumi Matsuyama¹, Naoto Kihara¹, Hideki Kaida¹, Yoshinori Mihara², Tomonori kitaori³, Atsusi Onouti³ (1. CRIEPI, 2. KAJIMA, 3. Chubu Electric Power)

3:30 PM - 3:45 PM

[2O13] Construction of the technical basis for tsunami PRA

Part 4: Fragility Evaluation Method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure –Application for the Personnel Watertight Door-

*Hideki Kaida¹, Masafumi Matsuyama¹, Yoshiaki Watanuki¹, Naoto Kihara¹, Yoshinori Mihara², Tomonori Kitaori³, Atsushi Onouchi³ (1. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 2. Kajima Corporation, 3. Chubu Electric Power)

3:45 PM - 4:00 PM

[2O14] Construction of the technical basis for tsunami PRA

Part 5: Fragility Evaluation method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure –Application for the Large Watertight Door-

*Yoshinori Mihara¹, Masafumi Matsuyama², Yoshiaki Watanuki², Naoto Kihara², Hideki Kaida², Tomonori Kitaori³, Atsushi Onouchi³ (1. Kajima Corporation, 2. Central Research Institute Electric Power Industry, 3. CHUBU Electric Power Co.,Inc.)

4:00 PM - 4:15 PM

[2O15] Tsunami Fragility Assessment Study with Application to Virtual Nuclear Power Plant

(1)Scope of Research Project

*Naoto Kihara¹, Hideki Kaida¹, Bumpei Fujioka², Shingo Oda², Akihiro Ootsuki², Yoshiteru Sato², Tatsuto Kimura³, Masahiro Masuko³, Yoshiyuki Takahashi⁴, Yoshinori Mihara⁴ (1. CRIEPI, 2. HGNE, 3. TEPSCO, 4. KAJIMA)

4:15 PM - 4:30 PM

[2O16] Tsunami Fragility Assessment Study with Application to Virtual Nuclear Power Plant

(2)Probablistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment and Determination of Tsunami Scenarios for Fragility Assessment

*Ayumi Nishi¹, Tatsuto Kimura¹, Masahiro Masuko¹, Naoki Fujii¹, Hideki Kaida², Naoto Kihara² (1. TEPSCO, 2. CRIEPI)

4:30 PM - 4:45 PM

[2O17] Tsunami Fragility Assessment Study with Application to Virtual Nuclear Power Plant

(3)Graded Approach in Input Conditions and their Uncertainties for Fragility Evaluation

*Yoshiyuki Takahashi¹, Yoshinori Mihara¹, Hideki Kaida², Naoto Kihara² (1. KAJIMA, 2. CRIEPI)

4:45 PM - 5:00 PM

[2O18] Tsunami Fragility Assessment Study with Application to Virtual Nuclear Power Plant

(4)A tsunami PRA quantification methodology for several source of tsunami

*Bumpei Fujioka¹, Shingo Oda¹, Ayumi Nishi², Tatsuto Kimura², Hideki Kaida³, Naoto Kihara³ (1. Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy, 2. TEPSCO, 3. CRIEPI)

Time reserved for Chair （5:00 PM - 5:10 PM）

Sessions

IV. Nuclear Plant Technologies » 403-1 Risk Assessment Technology, Application of Risk Information

[1O01-07] Advanced PRA Methodology

(1)Investigation of Applicability for Limit Surface Prediction of PCT

Part 1 Concept of Integrated Risk Assessment Methodology and Development of Multi-Unit PRA Considering Frequency Correlation Using DQFM Methodology (Framework)

Part 2: Proposal of Interaction Model for Analysing Nuclear Facilities Accident

Part3:Bayesian estimation for generating fragility curve of high fidelity structure model

(1)Introduction to regional risk analysis method

(2)Preliminary development of regional risk analysis model

[1O08-13] PRA Technology 1

(1)Failure Mode Effects Analysis for Identification Initiating Event of SHIKA NPS Unit2 during Power Operation(Level1)

(2)Evaluation results of HRA Calculator and improvement activity of SHIKA NPS Unit2

(7)Success Criteria Analysis Using GOTHIC

(8)Dependency Analysis between Post-Initiator HFEs

[1O14-19] PRA Technology 2

(1)Challenges in source term evaluation for Level 2 PRA and approach to them

(2)Evaluation for models characteristics of FP aerosol behavior in MAAP code

(3)Analysis on FP aerosol experiments applying MAAP code

(4)Development of source term uncertainty analysis method applying MAAP code

[2O01-09] Seismic, Fault displacement PRA

(1)Outline

(2)Analysis and examination of uncertainty regarding soil and building

(3)Analysis and examination of uncertainty regarding component and piping system

(4)Analysis and examination regarding effect on CDF

(1)Application example of global response model to Shih-Gang dam damage in Chi-Chi Earthquake of Taiwan

(2)Application example of local model to Shih-Gang dam damage in Chi-Chi Earthquake of Taiwan

An Advanced Evaluation for the Structural Integrity of Crossover Piping System

[2O10-18] Tsunami PRA

Part 1: Overview of the Tsunami PRA Project

Part 2: Tsunami input waveforms on the basis of probabilistic tsunami hazard curve for fragility evaluation

Part 3: Fragility Evaluation method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure-Evaluation Method-

Part 4: Fragility Evaluation Method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure –Application for the Personnel Watertight Door-

Part 5: Fragility Evaluation method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure –Application for the Large Watertight Door-

(1)Scope of Research Project

(2)Probablistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment and Determination of Tsunami Scenarios for Fragility Assessment

(3)Graded Approach in Input Conditions and their Uncertainties for Fragility Evaluation

(4)A tsunami PRA quantification methodology for several source of tsunami

Authentication

Part 3: Fragility Evaluation method of the Watertight Door for the Tsunami Pressure
-Evaluation Method-