10:30 AM - 10:45 AM
[087] A Study on the Long-term Spatio-Temporal Changes of Shrinking Cities in China
Keywords:Shrinking Cities, China, Identification, Spatio-Temporal Changes
Urban shrinkage has become a global phenomenon, appearing not only in the United States, Europe, and other developed countries and regions but also in China, which is undergoing rapid urbanization. Currently, there is extensive discussion around the distribution, manifestations, causes, and policy responses of shrinking cities. Although a few studies have attempted to identify shrinking cities based on demographic, economic, social, or spatial dimensions, the majority of studies use population as a single indicator. Additionally, studies analyzing the spatial dimension often have a small geographical scope. Thus, it is necessary to consider multi-dimension indicators in research with a large geographical scope. Moreover, long-term studies are required because urban shrinkage is a long-term and dynamic process.
This study takes all 297 prefecture-level cities (including four municipalities directly administered by the Central Government) in mainland China as the research subject and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of shrinking cities over 20 years (2000–2020), from the perspectives of demography, economy, and space. The data include permanent resident population, population density of permanent residents, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), per capita GRDP, and urban built-up areas identified by remote sensing images. This study addresses three questions: 1) How did the spatial and temporal distribution of shrinking cities change between 2000 and 2020? 2) In which dimensions do cities show shrinkage? What are the types of shrinking cities according to the shrinking period? What is the spatial distribution of each type? 3) How does the distribution of shrinking cities vary across different urban contexts, such as city size and urban resources?
The results show that more than half of Chinese cities are experiencing population loss. The spatial distribution has expanded from a few cities in central China to most provinces. The proportion of economic-shrinking cities is about 13%, which emerged after 2015, mainly in the northeast. Spatial shrinkage cities account for 7.4% and are scattered across several provinces. Among shrinking cities, the largest proportion (66.7%) show the shrinkage in the single dimension of population; 16.1% show shrinkage in both demographic and economic dimensions. Additionally, several cities in Nei Mongol Zizhiqu are shrinking in all three dimensions. Moreover, more than one-third of the shrinking cities are in the continuous shrinkage category, and those in the recent shrinkage category account for 12.8%. Furthermore, the proportion of shrinking cities is higher in small and medium-sized cities and resource-based cities.
The study contributes to the understanding of the current status of shrinking cities in China, and can aid the government and urban planners in adjusting the planning paradigm to achieve sustainable urban development.
This study takes all 297 prefecture-level cities (including four municipalities directly administered by the Central Government) in mainland China as the research subject and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of shrinking cities over 20 years (2000–2020), from the perspectives of demography, economy, and space. The data include permanent resident population, population density of permanent residents, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), per capita GRDP, and urban built-up areas identified by remote sensing images. This study addresses three questions: 1) How did the spatial and temporal distribution of shrinking cities change between 2000 and 2020? 2) In which dimensions do cities show shrinkage? What are the types of shrinking cities according to the shrinking period? What is the spatial distribution of each type? 3) How does the distribution of shrinking cities vary across different urban contexts, such as city size and urban resources?
The results show that more than half of Chinese cities are experiencing population loss. The spatial distribution has expanded from a few cities in central China to most provinces. The proportion of economic-shrinking cities is about 13%, which emerged after 2015, mainly in the northeast. Spatial shrinkage cities account for 7.4% and are scattered across several provinces. Among shrinking cities, the largest proportion (66.7%) show the shrinkage in the single dimension of population; 16.1% show shrinkage in both demographic and economic dimensions. Additionally, several cities in Nei Mongol Zizhiqu are shrinking in all three dimensions. Moreover, more than one-third of the shrinking cities are in the continuous shrinkage category, and those in the recent shrinkage category account for 12.8%. Furthermore, the proportion of shrinking cities is higher in small and medium-sized cities and resource-based cities.
The study contributes to the understanding of the current status of shrinking cities in China, and can aid the government and urban planners in adjusting the planning paradigm to achieve sustainable urban development.